The price of oil in 2016 may not reach the budgeted level of $ 41 per barrel due to continued instability in the world markets of raw materials. This assumption is contained in the conclusion of the accounting chamber on the amendments to the budget of the current year, reports TASS.
Recall, the government in the amendments to the law on budget for 2016, submitted to the Duma on 8 October, has reduced the forecast level of prices for Urals oil at nine dollars a barrel – from $ 50 to 41 dollars per barrel.
In audit chamber believe that to achieve the expected in the forecast average price of Urals oil $ 41 per barrel by the end of 2016 October – December 2016, its average value should be not less than 45.1 percent.
In the first quarter of Urals in January-March, according to the Finance Ministry, was worth an average of 31.99 USD. Furthermore, in 2015 Saudi Arabia began supplying to Europe, which has traditionally purchased mostly Russian oil by offering good discounts. Suppliers of Russian oil had to increase their discounts almost twice the discount of oil from Russia to Brent, last year, does not exceed $ 1-2, in the beginning of 2016 rose to 3.8 per dollar.
“However, given continuing instability in the world markets of raw materials, it is impossible to exclude the probability of falling oil prices on the world market in the last months of the current year, which creates some risks in the achievement of expected in 2016 the price of Urals crude oil specified in the forecast”, – the document says.
Meanwhile, when saving in October – December 2016 the average oil prices at the level prevailing in September (44.24 USD per barrel), the average price of oil could reach in 2016 40.78 USD per barrel, which is 0.22 dollar, or 0.5% below the expected forecast values of prices on oil in 2016.