American analyst who predicted the invasion of Russia to Ukraine, called the next “target” of Russia
A former employee of the national security Council, USA (NSC) Paul D. Miller, who predicted four years ago, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, predicted that the next target of Russia is the Baltic States, and described a possible scenario for the division of Europe. This forecast is made in an article published in the journal Foreign Policy, the website InoPressa.
Miller, part of the national security Council of the United States under presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, writes that Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Russians who look at the world through the prism of Russian religious nationalism, the West is inherently a threat “because of its degeneracy and globalism.”
“Now, Putin is in the most favorable international conditions since the end of the cold war to continue Russian expansion” – the analyst says: European unity shaken, and the new American President Donald trump openly favors Russia.
“Putin’s next step is more dangerous than the previous because it is likely to invade the Baltic States, which are members of NATO,” – says the author.
Miller predicts that Putin will not be sent across the international border large formation of Russian soldiers, and “provoke ambiguous military crisis, using puppets, which can be postponed, possibly in the next two years.” According to his forecasts, the Russian-speaking Latvians and Estonians will begin to protest, to demand protection of their rights, to claim persecution and asking for “international protection”. Appears suspiciously well armed and trained “the popular front for the liberation of the Russian Baltic”.
Then, as the author believes, will convene a summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Poland will demand the application of article 5 of the NATO Charter of collective self-defence, according to which an armed attack against one or more countries in Europe or North America “would be regarded as an attack against them all” and all should assist the person subjected to attack.
According to the forecast of the analyst, Germany and France will fight and everyone will look at US to understand on whose side are the Alliance leader. If the Alliance will not apply article 5, mutual guarantee obligations NATO would become functionally meaningless, the author writes. Some Eastern European States may decide to join the stronger side, Russia. Other, from Poland, will begin to arm themselves. “Dream about Putin split the West and unlimited field of activity in Europe will happen”, – predicts former member of the national security Council.
At the same time, if the Alliance will apply article 5, it would practically mean a Declaration of war by the West of Russia. And then Trump will have to decide whether the defense of Latvia risk to start a third world war,” concludes Miller.
The ex-President of Latvia: relations trump and Putin may turn into a contest of alpha males
The presence of NATO and the possibility of “care” is widely discussed in Latvia and other Baltic States since the election of Donald trump President of the United States. The ex-President of Latvia Vaira Vike-Freiberga, speaking in an interview with ABC about the consequences of this election and the role of NATO in the fight for the containment of Russia, criticized trump’s statement on the application of article 5 of the NATO Charter, which put support for the Baltic countries from the United States in reliance on increasing their defense spending.
“When trump says that if, alas, some NATO country is attacked, you need to first study the history of its investment in its defenses, and then to intervene, it is necessary to remind that the Agreement on NATO written differently. The idea of the contract that in case of aggression need to be tackled collectively, and not to reformulate the principles,” she said (quoted in the translation site InoPressa).
“I think that Trump, who previously was not a politician, you must learn the basic information that he clearly does not possess. I guess in the weeks up to January 20 (inauguration day. – Approx. NEWSru.com) and after that date – he will have to absorb, digest and understand a lot of information,” added the former President.
She believes that between the US and Russia at the trump new relationship is impossible, because “the position of trump is to “return America to greatness”, the Putin’s position – “to restore Russia’s greatness.” “You have to understand that they’ll have to find some balance. And if you have friendship, if they want a dialogue, fine, but this fact will not change. If they don’t find the balance, everything becomes a contest of two alpha males, who beat their Breasts, shouting: “I am the strongest,” said Vike-Freiberga.
The ex-President of Latvia also believes that for such a small country as Latvia, and “agreement with NATO, which protects democratic values and independence of each country”, is the perfect solution, because “small countries are not able to defend themselves alone and cannot be neutral”.
In the Baltic States hope trump will change the opinion on collective self-defense, becoming President
Many in the Baltic States urge people not to panic over the presidency of trump, wrote the Financial Times, noting that they are hoping that trump will change the opinion, having taken his position, and will support NATO.
The Minister of foreign Affairs of Lithuania Linas Linkevičius stated that his comforting traditional support for NATO’s Republican party and it remains a serious defence of the Baltic States and the rest of Eastern Europe.” “I really believe that emotions calm down, when on their shoulders will fall the burden of responsibility,” said Linkevičius.
“I think the Baltic States could suffer in the event of agreement between the U.S. and Russia, which may raise the issue of the Russian sphere of influence. This represents for us a much greater danger than some vague words about NATO,” the newspaper quoted a senior Lithuanian official.
MEP from Latvia Sandra Kalniete noted that the Baltic States like Berlin during the cold war: it’s a line of defense. “Every time in history when the US “left” from Eastern Europe and left them to bicker among themselves, it was a disaster. I really hope they won’t do it again”, she added.
In the former Soviet Baltic republics and in Europe repeatedly expressed suspicions about the supposedly imminent Russian invasion of the Baltic States on the “Crimean” scenario, therefore the scale of the planned NATO exercises in these countries is constantly growing. In particular, the Alliance discussed the deployment in Poland and the Baltic States four battalions, and Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are planning to establish a regional air defence system.
Russia is also increasing its forces on its Western borders, including in the city of Klintsy of the Bryansk region near the border with Ukraine and Belarus, where the planned reconstruction and construction of new facilities of a military base.