The Russian budget 2016 will be converted, based on the cost of oil at $ 50 per barrel, said East economic forum, the Russian presidential aide Andrei Belousov. “Laid 50 dollars per barrel,” he said, noting that predict a period of stabilization in oil prices is now impossible.
“I can say that according to current estimates, according to the consensus forecast, which is done by different organizations, oil next year will be around $ 60 per barrel. The budget has now been laid for a more conservative forecast is arranged in the region of 50 dollars per barrel,” he said.
Belousov did not rule out that the oil price could “fall” up to 40 per barrel or even lower. “But we believe that such failures will be short-term in nature. If they will be long-term, the government will respond to this adjustment of the budget,” he added.
Meanwhile on the morning of September 4th the cost of the October futures contract for North sea Brent blend has reached 50,16 dollars per barrel. The cost of the October futures on a mixture of WTI fell to 46,09 dollars per barrel.
Oil prices have fallen sharply in the second half of August, down from 60 dollars per barrel to 40 dollars on the background of the stock exchange collapse in China. During the week of August 31 oil grew in price because of the rumors of possible actions by OPEC to balance the market.
As reported yesterday at the forum, Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev, the Ministry of Finance lays in the 2016 budget the price of oil over $ 40 a barrel.
The Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev said that in the revised forecast oil price in 2016 will be not below $ 50 per barrel.
In basic variant the Ministry laid the price of oil 55-60 dollars for 2016-2018, and conservative – permits and 40 per barrel for the next three-year period. In this scenario, the recession will last until 2017, the dollar will stay above 75 rubles for the next three years and will soar to 78 rubles by 2018, inflation will accelerate to 8.8 respectively and 7% in 2016 and 2017, and only in 2018 will be able to lower it below 6%.
Ex-Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin believes that the government needs to build the budget for next year based on oil prices of 50 dollars per barrel. He acknowledged that in this case the Cabinet runs the risk of an excessive increase of the deficit of the Treasury.
The President of Russia Vladimir Putin at the forum supported the transition to a one-year budget from three years. “The fact that the government is moving in these conditions to the annual budget, I think it is absolutely justified, because it is difficult to determine, perhaps, impossible to determine – how the global markets and how this will be reflected in the revenue budget”, – said the head of state to journalists. “I will ask the house this approach the government to support”, – said Putin.