Bloomberg: Putin will be cautious in its relationship with trump because of the unpredictability of the new US President
Despite some analysts expressed hopes for the establishment of Russian-American relations after the victory on elections of the President of the United States Donald trump and outright joy of deputies of the state Duma in connection with the voting results, the Russian leader Vladimir Putin is likely to be cautious in developing ties with the new head of the White house. About it reports Bloomberg with reference to sources in the Kremlin.
Putin and his team publicly welcomed the chance for a new, more constructive relationship with the United States with the election trump, the article notes. The Russian President one of the first congratulated trump’s victory over his rival Hillary Clinton, but was rather reserved in assessing the prospects of restarting spoiled because of the Ukrainian crisis in relations with Washington.
Speaking yesterday at the ceremony of presenting credentials of ambassadors in Moscow, Putin recalled the pre-election statements of trump, which “was aimed at restoring relations between Russia and the United States,” but also noted that “it will be a difficult path” taking into account the degradation in which there are these relations.
– Experts do not expect significant warming in Russian-American relations after the arrival of the trump to power
According to Bloomberg, Putin can not take into account “the insane unpredictability” of trump, who, on the one hand, generously lavished praise on the Russian leader, and with another – offered to shoot down Russian fighter jets performing a barrel roll near the us ships and planes.
In the Kremlin I doubt that trump will be able to “reverse” years of anti-Russian as Moscow believes, the policies of Washington, writes Bloomberg. According to sources, Putin, before “open arms” Trump, first look how far he is ready to go in the development of relations.
“In a situation with trump is very much at stake. May be the opportunities which no one had suspected, but at the same time, possible risks eclipsing all possible achievements”, – said the Agency head of the Carnegie Moscow Center Dmitri Trenin, quoted InoPressa.
If trump will perform at least part of his campaign promises, his presidency could dramatically change the situation for Putin, who seeks to revive Russia’s influence in the international arena, the article says. Perhaps the fact of trump’s victory in the elections would encourage Putin’s “emboldened and act assertive from the Middle East to the neighboring former Soviet republics,” notes the author Henry Meyer.
According to Meyer, the victory trump – “part of the wave of populism in developed countries – trends, which the Kremlin welcomes and encourages”. That cyberattack, which U.S. intelligence accused Russia that could hurt Hillary Clinton, exposing the internal mechanisms of its election staff, may encourage the Kremlin more aggressively to intervene in the elections in other places, the article notes.
At the same time, Russian officials fear that trump’s attempts to improve relations with the Kremlin will let the American forces that are not interested in “warming”.
Trump in the election campaign repeatedly made statements indicating his sympathy personally to Putin and to Russia, as well as his willingness to improve relations between the two countries. So, in July in the broadcast American TV channel ABC during a debate with Vice-President of the USA Joe Biden, trump said that by recognizing the Crimea as part of Russia, Washington will be able to enlist the help of Moscow in struggle against the terrorist group “Islamic state” (ISIS, DAISH, is prohibited in Russia).
Host asked if he was ready to improve relations with Russia accepting Crimea into its composition, trump said that if Washington will be a good relationship with Moscow and she will help get rid of ISIS, “we are talking about huge amounts of money and many lives”. “It will be a positive thing, not negative,” he concluded. Trump also suggested to take into account that “the inhabitants of the Crimea would prefer to be with Russia, but not where they were before.”
In September, the Republican candidate said that Putin is more of a leader than the incumbent President Barack Obama in the United States. He also assured Americans that if you take the office of the President, will establish relations with Russia in order “to knock out spirit” of the IG.
During the election campaign in the United States has been regularly accused of attempts of Russian intervention in elections in favor of trump. In Moscow, however, such assumptions are flatly denied.
On the eve of the British newspaper The Times wrotethat maybe in Russia did not expect that trump will become President and began to intervene in the training campaign first, just to discredit Clinton. But after the approval of trump as a candidate of the Kremlin “has taken a turn,” since Moscow, it became clear that you can “win the American elections and not just them to wreck,” he said in the article.
But some differences between the positions of Moscow and trump have surfaced during his election campaign. For example, trump has promised to hold new negotiations on a nuclear agreement with Iran or to annul it, while Moscow approves this agreement.
A former adviser to Bush, Thomas Graham thinks trump is a successful businessman in return for easing of sanctions against Russia “will try to get something from Russia”, said in the Bloomberg article. However, it warns Fyodor Lukyanov, who heads the Council, which advises the Kremlin on foreign policy, trump may find that Putin is not so easy to negotiate, he thought. Then “disappointment can lead to this irritation, and all roll in the opposite direction,” does not exclude it.