The permanent President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko addressed the delegates of the fifth all-Belarusian people’s Assembly, which the Internet is sarcastically called “a parody of the Congress of the CPSU”. A distinctive feature of the speech of the Belarusian leader was silent about Russia: Lukashenko never praised Russia for help and never even criticized Moscow’s actions, as in the past the national Assembly. Experts believe that the cause is a serious crisis that is brewing between the countries. And evidence of this is: from the Russian threats to restrict the import of Belarusian products and, most important, to reduce oil supplies because of debts of Minsk.

As noted by “Belarusian partisan”, a two-hour speech to the participants of the “national Veche” Lukashenko insisted: “We just made up ourselves!” The President explained the apparent failure of the economy is “sagging” because of the crisis the Russian and Western markets, and again demanded in the Eurasian integration structure promised a common market without exemptions and restrictions.

During his speech, Lukashenko became aware of the fact that five Belarusian poultry banned in Russia. Shortly before that, the Rosselkhoznadzor reported that can completely ban the export of dairy products from Belarus, as the Agency again has any claims to its quality.

However, these signals Belarusian authorities pales before the fact that Russia may reduce oil supplies to Belarus in the third quarter by two million tons. On 16 June the head of the energy Ministry of Russia Alexander Novak, Recalling that Belarus debt to “Gazprom” more than $ 250 million and not supplies in Russia, developed at Belarusian refineries petroleum products, passed RIA “Novosti”.

The mirror of the Russian “oil miracle zero”, the September elections and exhausted the limit on revolutions”

Political analyst Alexander Klaskouski believes that “between Belarus and Russia is brewing the next oil war.” For the expert it is obvious, and the plot was to frustrate whether Lukashenko on the podium of the all-Belarusian Assembly on some impromptu, as it were, for example, in April during his message to the people and Parliament – a sharp, then, were the attacks against Moscow and its policy. Well, this time Lukashenko about relations with Russia, decided, as of the dead – either good or nothing,” he said.

Perhaps the mood Lukashenko could spoil the fact that at the beginning of June to the statements Novak, met with Vladimir Putin on the Belarusian-Russian forum of regions in Minsk, he and the Russian leader discussed the oil and gas issue, which was not then insoluble.

It is worth Recalling that in 2010, fourth all-Belarusian national Assembly Alexander Lukashenko spoke in a critical way on the policy of Russia regarding oil.

“Is it normal when the Belarusian officials is necessary to persist in Moscow every time on New year’s eve, begging for a barrel of oil? – said Lukashenko. – Nobody will be for us to solve our problems and challenges: neither Moscow nor Washington nor Brussels. We should resolutely get rid of the flawed servile psychology dependent on someone stronger and underestimation of our own capabilities.”

He stated that “it is necessary to rely only on itself. However, he stressed that to break with Russia “in no event it is impossible”.

Between Russia and Belarus in the framework of the creation in 2015 of the Eurasian economic Union (EAEU) was an agreement under which Moscow will deliver to Minsk oil at domestic prices and the supply of petroleum products. Belarus became to achieve Russia to lower the previously agreed volumes of supply of petroleum products soon after the devaluation of the Russian ruble, because it was cheaper to put petrol in other countries.

In April Belarus saidthat she doesn’t like the prices at which Russia sells her energy, and the prices at which Moscow buys her gasoline, as well as the quality of Russian oil and the procedure of payments for energy resources in dollars.

Lukashenko played in “people’s congresses”, the economy is in decline

To the statement Lukashenko at the “people’s chamber” of the Belarusian opposition have been critical. For example, Mikalai Statkevich wrote: “As if our economy is doing fine because I have nothing to do. Why play some “people’s Assembly”. But the country is at an impasse, the ordinary citizens live harder. And this again is gathering his lackeys and go on and on about visible to him only success.”

As notes “Belarusian partisan”, the five-year plan 2011-2015 was to Minsk failed, as “sacred GDP is planned to increase by 62-68%, in fact turned out to be less than 6%”.

With regard to the promises of the Belarusian President, which he usually voiced at the Belarusian national Assembly, which is held approximately every five years, they are, according to the analysis portal Naviny.bypractically not implemented.

Strong comprehensive reform systematically serves the Belarusian leader as an analogue of chaos and collapse, according to the journalists. According to the “Partizan”, of these reforms, the country will not wait: “Talks about the improvement of the public sector covered banal fear to tear down the system breech, thoroughly controlled by the apparatus of the economy. Ultimately, this fear of losing power. And since the government is for a permanent President is Holy, clear, bold reform will not happen. Will proreform when absolutely will secure. Belarusians maximally prolong the agony of the old model, arguing that war is worse.”

The mirror of the Russian “oil miracle zero”, the September elections and exhausted the limit on revolutions”

Lukashenko in his speech recalled the “Belarusian economic miracle” of the last decade, when GDP grew by about 10% per year. “But largely at the expense of oil offshore. He erased all Belarusian strategists. Thought it would be forever, missed time for an upgrade,” complained Belarusian journalists.

In this Belarus has much in common with its neighbor. Russian officials have also repeatedly said that the country’s prosperity in the past depended heavily on oil exports. Dmitry Medvedev called to get off the “oil needle”, however, this is not happening, as experts say. “It (the relationship) was formed in 1960-70-ies, we then got hooked on this oil needle and took advantage of the benefits associated with high oil prices, – said the Prime Minister. – As a result we have an economy which is at least 50% dependent on hydrocarbons and any kind of fluctuations in the oil and gas market”.

Opposition leader Ilya Yashin, in turn, notedthat for years of Board of Vladimir Putin, Russia has received about $ 3.5 trillion from oil sales, but special successes have not achieved, and the Foundation of the national economy remained the same.

It is worth mentioning that this year Belarus will hold parliamentary elections – they will be held on September 11. In this view, the political situation in the country becomes even more similar to Russian – in the Russian Federation state Duma elections should take place on 18 September. In addition, the reflectivity of the position of the allied countries give even the statement of the government.

So, Alexander Lukashenko has copied the phrase Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Both politicians talked about stability: Russian Premier economic forum “United Russia” in Magnitogorsk, the June 21, Belarusian President Belarusian national Assembly, which in the Network compared with the congresses of the CPSU.

“Just want to emphasize that any withdrawal of the current us political system will not. As I have repeatedly said, the limit of revolutions and catastrophes, the people exhausted in the last century, and now he wants to live in peace, abundance, creating, not destroying their welfare and the welfare of his young and sovereign state,” Lukashenka said (quoted by “Belarusian partisan”).

Medvedev, in turn, said: “the revolution We do not need, we have a limit already exhausted in the last century” (quoted by “Interfax”).

“Either good or nothing”: Lukashenko, speaking at the Belarusian “chamber”, never remembered about Russia-the ally 24.06.2016

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