“United Russia” took first place on the ballot in five of the 11 regions where elections will be held in the fall in a single day of voting. In the Committee of civil initiatives (CGI), which is chaired by former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, has estimated that since 2006 the party was in the lead in the lists in 43% of cases. The fact that this time the “United Russia” will go under the first number in almost half of the regions, the Fund is called the victory over the probability. This is stated in the “Analytical report on long-term observation of elections 13.09.2015″, published on the website of the OIG.
Places on the ballot are determined by the results of the draw – line-in ballots are distributed randomly. Each election Committee has the right to define the draw method. In the Novosibirsk region the representatives of the parties pulled the envelopes with the numbers, writes RBC with reference to the Secretary of the regional election Commission Sergei Lebedev. There the first position of the seven possible was taken by the party in power.
Novosibirsk “the United Russia” luck is not first time, on last elections in the legislature in 2010, they also won first place in the Bulletin. According to Lebedev, the draw results is not unusual. “United Russia” also will be shown as the first number in the list, see who came to the polls in Voronezh, Kaluga, Magadan and Chelyabinsk regions. In two regions – the Republic of Komi and the Ryazan region – the party in power number two.
Expert in the field of electoral statistics Arkady luberef who worked, in particular, on the report of the OIG, at the request of RBC calculated the probability of success of United Russia in a mathematical formula. According to the conclusions of the expert, the probability that the ruling party will take first place in the ballots of the five regions is about 1 in 100 (1%).
In the report, the OIG noted that the receiving party in power in first place in the ballots can be considered the long-established practice. All, starting with the first uniform day of voting in March 2006, “United Russia” has received the first on the ballot for regional elections in 73 cases out of 169 (43%). The probability of such an event with honest conduct of lotteries (i.e., in a random outcome) is negligible, the report notes.
“Continues almost uninterrupted marathon victories “United Russia” on the theory of probabilities – this party on the results of the draw has consistently received first place in the ballot more often than was to receive in accordance with this theory,” says the report.
The unequivocal answer to the question, does the party first place in the newsletter is not, however lyubarev in a conversation with RBC has a fairly good example. “In 2003 Conceptual party “the Unification”, the former first in the Bulletin, has received more than 1% in the elections to the state Duma, although no one knew neither its leaders nor its programs. Played the role of two factors: it could be confused with “United Russia”, and she was the first in the Bulletin,” – said the expert.
Political analyst Igor Mintusov, in turn, noted that, based on many years of observation of the elections, including abroad, 1-2% of undecided voters to vote for the first issue of the Bulletin. In his opinion, the system of allocation of seats on the ballot involves a large field for manipulation.
Meanwhile, the CEC member with a deliberative vote from “United Russia”, first Deputy head of the party’s Executive Committee Konstantin Mazurowski assured the publication that the “United Russia” under current law may not affect the way the draw and its result”.
September 13, the single voting day in Russia will be held 10,8 thousand elections of different levels in 83 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. In 21 the region will choose governors, and in 11 regions deputies of Legislative Assembly. Just participate, 55 political parties, as well as by self-nominated candidates.