Experts do not expect significant warming in Russian-American relations after the arrival of the trump to power
The victory of Republican Donald trump on the election of the President of the United States won despite the opposite projections of analysts and data surveys, which consistently lead the candidate from the democratic party, Hillary Clinton, has generated a lot of discussion about how the change of vector of American foreign policy towards Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin on the eve gave to understand that Moscow is ready to restore Russian-American relations. Experts and journalists in Russia, there is no doubt that the policy of a billionaire, unexpectedly for many became the President of the United States, will lead to a thaw in relations between Moscow and Washington. Overview of publications on this topic publishes the website “Headlines”.
According to “Nezavisimaya Gazeta”, with the victory of trump, though he managed to earn a scandalous reputation, “end of the world should not expect”. “Billionaire, maybe, and looks like a reckless person, but becoming the owner of the White house on 20 January 2017, it is likely to be more pragmatic and give up their own most odious promises,” suggest the authors.
Journalists believe that the political system in the United States will not allow Trump to dramatically and radically change the current political course. “The checks and balances of this system will allow the Congress and the Supreme court continue to monitor the actions of the President”, – is spoken in article.
Similar is the opinion of the journalist of”Moskovsky Komsomolets”. The author notes that the “ultimate fragmentation” trump “causes terror in American and not just American political establishment”. “But trump was elected President of the United States – the country in which the system is stronger than any single policy” – immediately writes the author of the material.
– Gleb Kuznetsov: “This movie is about the charm of someone else’s life” – Stanislav Kucher: “you sure we’re not the 51st state?”
At the same time, the journalist believes that although the unpredictability of trump and may in the future cause Russia trouble, she allows at least a hope for change for the better in relations between the two countries. “The problem is that Russia is “evil Empire” in the eyes of not only Hillary, but many Republicans. And in this respect, concerns about trump’s justified: despite personal sympathy for the new US President, Putin, does not know where media can steer its course towards Russia. But unpredictability is not necessarily a bad thing,” the article says.
The author sums up the uncertainty: “I don’t know if President trump is good for Russian-American relations. But President trump definitely gives this relationship a new chance.”
Matthew Rozhansky, Director of the Kennan Institute on Russia and the CIS, the Woodrow Wilson Center, comments in “Rossiyskaya Gazeta” suggested that “the administration trump certainly will initially take a less hostile stance toward Moscow than it would in the case of Hillary Clinton.” At the same time, “there are doubts whether it is possible to achieve a lot”. According to the expert, the differences between Russia and the USA exist because of the conflict of interest that is not resolved by trump’s desire to meet personally with Putin.
“But in the medium to long term, the new us administration will have no choice but to seek pragmatic cooperation with Moscow, aimed at providing a broad range of vital interests of the United States, depending on the extent of conflict with Russia, even if deeper cooperation and will not be visible”, – says Rozhansky.
Political analyst Konstantin Kalachev believes that the role of Russia in the elections of the President of the United States should not exaggerate, write “Vedomosti”. According to experts, the choice of Americans identified internal issues, and the vote was a protest: Clinton nothing new has been revealed and proved to be too correct and too boring.
In the state Duma victory trump met with optimism, reminiscent of 2008, when Democratic candidate Barack Obama defeated Republican and was preparing to change in the White house of George W. Bush, writes “Kommersant”. Then the new American leader was perceived as the person with whom you can re-start the conversation, the newspaper reminds. The newspaper notes that for Russia the change of power in the United States once again became an occasion to “look at relationships in a new way.” “Part of the reboot may be the reduction of promotional intensity,” reads the article.
Earlier, the us media wrote that trump, won the election, got a unique chance to reorganize U.S.-Russian relations. At the same time it was noted that both Democrats and Republicans in Congress support a hard line against the Kremlin, and when the billionaire will be able to implement any changes, is unclear.
Trump will go with the sanctions
Many analysts have associated with victory trump a possible change in the sanctions policy of the United States against Russia. Chief economist of “Renaissance Capital” Charles Robertson said in a note to clients at the disposal of RBC, because there is hope for easing of us sanctions in 2017. Global implications of trump’s victory would benefit Russia agrees strategist at research firm Ecstrat Mostak Emad (Emad Mostaque) because the future administration of trump may cancel the sanctions, “as a gesture of appeasement.”
The American lawyer Jacobson Kelly Burton Doug Jacobson, specializing in the sanctions, said RBC that to waive or modify the sanctions against Russia can be quite fast, if they wish, with trump administration. The current legal regime of sanctions against Russia is based on several decrees issued by the President of the United States Barack Obama in 2014, and further regulations, OFAC and the U.S. Department of Commerce for the execution of these decrees. The next American leader may cancel or change these decrees without congressional action, said Jacobson.
In turn Congress adopted in 2014, the so-called support Act freedom in Ukraine, authorizing sanctions against Russian citizens and companies. However, such sanctions under this law have not been entered yet, the expert said.
On the eve of the Russian President’s adviser Sergei Glazyev suggestedthat trump, occupying the post of President of the United States, cancel anti-Russian sanctions. He also said with confidence about the upcoming reboot of relations between Russia and America.
Shortly thereafter, the state Department said that the current US administration headed by Obama does not intend to cancel the sanctions until the completion of their term of office on 20 January 2017. In the state Department reminded that the abolition of the black list is possible after the return of Crimea to Ukraine and implementation of Minsk agreements.
Against this background, the people’s Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Hope Savchenko, in an official address to the Trump urged to maintain and even strengthen sanctions against Russia. MP also asked the Republican to strengthen international, technical and military support to Ukraine.
The US election was held on 8 November. The Republican candidate Donald trump won a victory, gaining 289 electoral votes if necessary
minimum of 270 votes. His main rival, Hillary
Clinton scored 218 electoral votes. After the elections
the Republicans retained control of both houses
Congress – the House of representatives and the Senate.
Commenting on the results of the US elections, Russian President Vladimir Putin recalled the pre-election statements of trump, which “was aimed at restoring relations between Russia and the USA”. In turn, the Chairman of the state Duma Vyacheslav Volodin has expressed hope that with the arrival of trump in the White house will be able to establish a more constructive dialogue between the US and Russia.