Analysts believe that the ruble slightly strengthened after
members of the Organization of countries – exporters of oil (OPEC) agreed on the reduction of oil production to 32.5 million barrels per day. For a week he can go up to 62-63 per dollar, the experts interviewed by RBC. Until the end of the year, the ruble, in their opinion, will remain stable.
On the news about progress in the negotiations OPEC in Vienna on the eve of the first three hours of nearly 9 percent rise in Brent crude oil prices to 51.4 per barrel. The dollar on the Moscow stock exchange fell by almost 1.8% compared with the level of opening – up 63,97 of the ruble. After the official confirmation of the reduction of production growth in oil prices accelerated again, nearly 52 per barrel.
As suggested in an interview with RBC chief analyst of “Nordea Bank” Olga Lapshina, it seems that world markets are not completely satisfied with reducing the volume of production.
In turn the chief of analytical Department of Bank “Zenith” Vladimir Evstifeev said that the reduction of oil production by 1.2 million barrels a day allows you to remove all the excess raw materials on the world market. But the potential shortage of oil on the market can be immediately compensated by the shale producers from the US, he suggested.
According to experts, OPEC’s decision is likely to allow oil prices to stabilize for a long time not above 50 dollars per barrel. The ruble may strengthen this week to 63.5 rubles to the dollar, he suggested.
According to Lapshin, oil prices can take a long time to freeze in the range of 50-55 per barrel, which will strengthen the ruble to RUB 62-63 per dollar during the week. Volatility in the currency market will not, she said. Both experts suggest that the ruble strengthened after OPEC meeting, will be stable until the end of the year. The ruble will not weaken and almost inevitable rise in interest rates, the fed at the meeting on 14 December, analysts say.
The ruble against the dollar and the Euro yesterday evening grew steadily amid a rebound in the oil price of 10% in the district level 52 USD per barrel of Brent crude for the first time since the end of October, reports RIA “Novosti”. The dollar calculations “tomorrow” 22:05 Moscow time decreased by 1.02 rubles, to 64.1 per ruble, the Euro – 1.43 ruble – to of 67.89 of the ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
Stabilization of oil prices will definitely have a positive impact on the oil and gas industry, said Anna Kokoreva of “Alpari”, which cites RIA “Novosti”. “We anticipate that in early December, trading on the pair dollar/rouble will be in the area of 63.5-66, on the Euro/ruble – in the range of 66.5-70. On the Russian currency will continue to pressure the budget deficit and a possible rate hike by the U.S. Federal reserve in mid – December,” she said.
Oil prices continue to rise
Oil prices, which showed on Wednesday the maximum rise in nine months in connection with the results of the meeting of oil-producing countries in Vienna, continues to grow on Thursday. The cost of the February futures for Brent crude on the London ICE Futures exchange to 8:25 Moscow time rose by 0.57 per dollar (by 1.1%) to 52,41 USD per barrel, reports “Interfax”.
By the close of market on Wednesday, the futures rose in price on 4,09 dollar (of 8.82%) to 50.47 USD per barrel. Futures price for WTI crude oil for January in electronic trading on the new York Mercantile exchange (NYMEX) has increased by this time to 0.46 dollar (0,93%) – to 49.9 dollars per barrel. The jump in prices for Brent and WTI on Wednesday was the highest since February of 2016.
The effect of the agreement OPEC for market
As reported, last November 30 meeting of OPEC
for the first time in the last eight years, agreed to cut oil production by a total of 1.2 million barrels per day. Other oil
countries outside OPEC, should reduce
production by 600 thousand barrels per day, including Russia – within the limits of 300 thousand barrels per day.
The event is widely covered in the press. About articles in the Russian media on the results of negotiations in Vienna, writing the Headlines.
Statement of significant OPEC production cuts could push the rising prices of oil for five dollars or higher in the following days, predicted Morgan Stanley analysts led by Adam Longson, in its review of 28 November. The effect will be even stronger if supported by strong statements from countries outside OPEC, said RBC.
According to analysts, it is unlikely that the agreement will completely eliminate the glut of oil on the market. According to the calculations of the group, to balance demand and supply total OPEC production should not exceed 31.9 million barrels per day in the first half of 2017, however, it opens up the opportunity to join the transaction of other countries, primarily Russia, the largest oil producer outside of OPEC. On Wednesday, a source familiar with the Russian position, told Bloomberg that Moscow is ready to take a more flexible stance on the restriction of production, if OPEC reaches an internal agreement on production cuts.
“Kommersant” notes that the consent of Russia to cut production along with OPEC was a complete surprise. Until now, Moscow has stated that it is willing only to freeze production at the current level of 11.2 million barrels per day. However, according to the publication, the position was changed by the decision of Russian President Vladimir Putin after a telephone conversation with President of Iran Hassan Rouhani. In the end, in fact Russia takes the second largest reduction after Saudi Arabia, allowing Iran not to reduce but to increase its quota within OPEC, the article says.
However, writes “Nezavisimaya Gazeta”, despite the outcome of OPEC and Russia, the agreement does not solve the basic problem of exporting: the production of shale oil in the United States. Meanwhile, according to foreign media reports, it actually adapted to the low prices for hydrocarbons.