Despite the strengthening of the ruble in the current year, the risks of a weakening in the medium term remain high. About it as transfers TASS, said in the next issue of the monitoring of the economic situation in Russia prepared by experts of the Russian Academy of national economy and public administration (Ranepa) and Russian Academy of foreign trade (VAVT).
Cause risk, according to the authors of the document remains possible reduction in oil price due to save its imbalance of supply and demand on the world market which can be reinforced by slowing economic growth in China and tightening monetary policy of the fed.
The last factor, they explain, will increase the relative attractiveness of US assets, triggering a capital outflow from other developed and emerging markets, including from Russia.
According to experts of the Academy and the Etta on the back of higher energy prices in the second and third quarters compared to the first quarter and the reduction in the outflow of capital, the nominal exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble declined for the first nine months of 2016 13.3% – up from 72.9 63.2 rubles to the dollar.
In the second half of January of current year the dollar on the stock exchange exceeded 80 rubles. “Due to stabilization of inflation and ruble strengthening in nominal terms, the real effective exchange rate of the ruble in January – September 2016 increased by 9.6% by December 2015, which corresponds to the beginning of 2006,” say the authors of the monitoring.