If OPEC at the forthcoming this month the meeting will not be able to negotiate a freeze or reduction in production, oil prices are guaranteed to fall below $ 40 per barrel. The probability that the deal seems less and less real, believe in Goldman Sachs Group.
“The lack of progress on the implementation of the production quota and growing disagreements between OPEC producers suggested a reduced probability of reaching agreement on 30 November”, – quotes Agency Bloomberg analyst note American financial conglomerate Damian Courvalin.
In his opinion, oil prices, which fell by 8% in two weeks, can continue to peak and to fall to $ 40 a barrel because of growing tensions within OPEC and plans key oil-producing countries to increase production. But if the new lower price of oil will encourage exporters to accelerate the development of specific agreements, the likelihood of successful reduction in oil reserves will remain extremely low.
As for the chances of achieving agreements to freeze, they melt away, the analyst said. Over the weekend talks of the experts of the OPEC and cartel consultations with representatives of a number of other oil-producing States, but they have not made any clarity in the issue specific numbers to restrict the supply to reduce the oversupply in the market.
It becomes finally clear that Saudi Arabia and its allies Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE – will not go for unilateral steps to stabilize the market without Iran and Iraq, which have already announced their nonparticipation in the agreement.
In addition, in October, according to preliminary data, OPEC has increased production to a new record of 34.2 million barrels, while refused to freeze Libya, Nigeria and Iran, according to the GS, adds to the market another 0.6 million barrels a day.
The situation is aggravated, accelerated commissioning of the fields in Russia – mining in Russia may rise from 11.2 million barrels per day in October to 11.7 million barrels in 2017, predicts Goldman.