As a result of increasing migration flow from China to 2050
the Chinese may be the second largest nation in Russia and around
migrants from Central Asia. The forecast of the expert in the field of demography,
scientific Director of the Center for migration studies of the Institute
economic forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences Zhanna Zayonchkovskaya made
at the III international conference “Migration
processes: problems of adaptation and integration”
, which started in
Wednesday, October 26, in the North-Caucasus Federal University
Stavropol.

“In China, even more unemployed than the Russian population as a whole.
If China maintains a strong relationship, then I think by 2050
the Chinese may be the second largest nation in Russia and around
the migration of the peoples of Central Asia”, – quotes the Zaionchkovskaya TASS.

She explained the process of the reduction of migration flows from countries
Central Asia after 2030, since a large proportion of young
the population of these countries have already left for training and work in neighboring
state.

Now the main “donors” of Russia are Tajikistan, Uzbekistan,
a significant part of the population comes from Ukraine. “If we think about
other “donors”, and of course, Russia will have to normally
to develop economically, to the population of other countries,
here, in addition to China, I see no alternative,” said Zayonchkovskaya
in the report “options for the development of migration processes on
the post-Soviet space”.

According to the expert, the change in pension legislation will not be able
to align the situation with the decline of the working population. “Improving
the retirement age does not align to the demographic wave, does not solve
the problem of trudobelikovskiy, it solves the problems of the pension Fund,
but the demographic situation will remain the same complex,” said
Zhanna Zayonchkovskaya, adding that, according to the FMS, international migration in Russia in 2015 amounted to 9.8 million people.

The conference “Migration processes” held the North-Caucasian Federal University in cooperation with the Institute of socio-political research RAS (Moscow). It involved scientists from Japan, Thailand, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, USA, UK, Hungary,
The Netherlands, Jordan and Ghana.

Migrants from Central Asia, Russia will last until 2030

About the depletion of the migratory resource of Central Asia, Zhanna
Zayonchkovskaya warned in 2013 in an interview
the newspaper “Novye Izvestia”.

“Resource Central Asian countries is not eternal. As
stopped the inflow of workers from Armenia, from Azerbaijan, from
Of Georgia, who in the 1990s was very significant, so run out and
Central Asian resource. They also have a reduced fertility,
wikipipedia resource youth. In Tajikistan will last for a long
time, and the potential of Uzbekistan will be depleted faster. Although approximately
2030 us migrants from Central Asia will suffice”, – predicted
the expert.

“And then they will remember and say “it was their familiar”,
as now I remember the Ukrainians”, – she added. After that will come
other migrant workers, but “this stream,” she said.

Zayonchkovskaya said that the total number of immigrants is highly dependent on
the state of the economy. “Working-age population is declining, and
if losses are not replenished, GDP growth may stop and
many small businesses go bankrupt,” she explained.

Migrants, according to her, the country needs economically. “Endless
hands on migrants and charge them in all our troubles
can not remain without consequences for too long,” – said the scientist.

It is recommended to work on the rules of entry into the legal field
visitors who are in an irregular situation, “to cease
to abuse of migrants in all media, and talk about the good that they
do for us”. “In Portugal on television, there is a 15-minute
transmission, in which migrants tell what they are doing. This
the experience would be very useful to us. Our population sees only
the janitors,” said the demographer.

In February 2016, in new interview
as Zayonchkovskaya stressed: “it is Important not to scare
Uzbeks and Tajiks. Because we have within the CIS is almost not
remains a source of cheap labor. Last year the labour market
fueled Ukrainians – they are about one million have arrived. But this source does not
can be inexhaustible. Approximately the same number of Ukrainians went to work
in Poland and in other countries of Western Europe. The Ukrainians – such a resource
which will be in demand in all countries. And our online at
as for the next two decades is Uzbeks and Tajiks”.

“It turns out all the rigour which we introduce, operate against
them. So we restrained our donors. Because they are, after all,
can also pave their way, for example in Korea, China”,
an expert has warned.

However, the report of the Expert-analytical center of the Russian Academy of national economy and public administration followed that by 2016, the migration to Russia from China ceded the leadership of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Ten years ago leaders in the export of legal migrants were China (21%) and Ukraine (18%).

In the first half of 2016, the Moscow budget received by workers 6.8 billion – more than due to the oil and gas industry. For the first half of 2016, the Moscow migration center issued 195 thousand patents among labor migrants legally with patents, most Uzbeks (43%), Tajiks (30%) and Ukrainians (16%).



In the Academy of Sciences predicted that by 2050, Chinese will become the second largest nation in Russia 26.10.2016

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