Due to the reduction of revenue expenditure of budgets of all levels in relation to Russia’s GDP will be gradually reduced in the next 18 years subject to the achievement of a deficit below 1% of GDP after 2020, writes the newspaper “Vedomosti”. This conclusion follows from the draft long-term budget forecast of the Ministry of Finance until 2034, which the government submitted to the state Duma.
Long-term prognosis fit into nine pages, five of which are devoted to the description of the requirement to complete long-term forecast. While it contains only part of the information and will be further developed.
The calculations in this document are made based on a forecast of economic stagnation, the inertial variant of development without significant changes of socio-economic policy.
Long-term forecast and strategy for socio-economic development are now also under development, announced recently the Ministry of economic development.
At constant tax legislation, budget revenues will decrease from 33.3% of GDP in 2016 to 29.9% of GDP in 2034. Most strongly reduced the income of the Federal budget, which will lose the fifth part of them: from the current 16.1% of GDP, they will fall to 13.1% of GDP.
Thus, revenues and expenses by the mid 2030’s will be reduced to the level of the beginning 2000-x years (the budget revenues in the period 2001-2003 accounted for 30-31 percent of GDP).
If the following income is not to reduce costs and keep them at the level of 2016 (37,3% of GDP), the budget deficit will rise from 4% of GDP to 8% GDP in 2030, is marked in the document.
While an increasing share of the costs will be allocated to debt service, and the immutability of the share of pension expenditure will be accompanied by a reduction of pensions. This creates risks for the country’s economic security, warns Ministry of Finance, offering as soon as possible to bring the costs in line with the prevailing budget availability.
Speedy bringing expenditures and revenues into line, and will focus on the next three years, during which the Federal budget deficit will be annually reduced by 1 percentage point of GDP to 1% in 2020.