The situation with the able-bodied population in Russia in the coming years will be difficult, as the demographic situation remains dire. As reported by RIA “Novosti”, stated the Minister of economic development of Russia Maxim Oreshkin, speaking at the first conference of regional managers of Vnesheconombank.
“As for Russia, especially for the next five or six years, the situation from the point of view of demography one of the most difficult in the world – we will lose annually about 800 thousand of the population of working age due to demographic structures”, – quotes Agency the words of the Minister.
Low birth rate in the country was made in 1999 to these people now for 18 years, they enter the workforce. “Generation is very small, so the negative dynamics of the working age population will continue”, – said the Minister.
To mitigate the negative effect of the decreasing working population will allow the introduction of new technologies, which will be a growth driver for the economy, says Oreshkin.
Answering the journalists ‘ question about whether the introduction of the technology cause the release of a large number of manpower, the head of the MAYOR said that it is unlikely to lead to serious consequences.
“The liberation of labour occurred with the invention of the steam engine or car. This process is natural, is permanent, there is nothing new. Technologies which are being implemented now – they are beneficial and interesting,” he concluded.
According to Rosstat, Russia’s average in January-July 2017 the number of deaths exceeded the number of births 11.8% (previous year was 1.3%), and in 20 regions the death rate exceeded the birth rate by 1.5-2 times. Losses from natural population decline, however, fully compensated for the influx of migrants, mainly from Ukraine, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. However, this inflow had fallen to a six-year low.
The only exception is Kyrgyzstan. Number of guests from Moldova and Ukraine continues to decline, from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are increasing gradually, but the figures do not reach pre-crisis levels, noted the authors of the recent monitoring of the Ranepa.
Under Putin the Russian government has repeatedly stated about great successes in improving the demographic situation in the country, linking it with the General improvement of the standard of living in the country, increasing life expectancy and the programme to encourage childbirth at the expense of the parent capital.
However, recalls in this regard the RBC, in recent years, the birth rate again went on the decline, and this is explained not only by economic crisis, but also the beginning of the next “cycle” that is repeated every quarter of a century.
The demand for labour is growing from the middle of 2016, with unemployment at 5.2% it could trigger the growth of wages than productivity and, as a consequence, rising prices, warned recently of the Central Bank. The demand for labor will grow, but the lack of young professionals to compensate for nothing.
The increase in the birth rate will not help here. The fact that the new generation will enter the market in 15-20 years, the demographic and the bottom will be reached before 2030.