Scheduled for October 1, the referendum on the independence of Catalonia
illegal, declared the authorities of Spain, who already appealed against the decision of the supporters of independence in the constitutional court.

The Central government argues that part of the population of Spain, that is, the Catalans can not decide the future of the country as a whole. The basic law of the state notes that the referendum is appointed by the king on the proposal of the Prime Minister, pre-approved by the Congress of deputies. A separate Autonomous community can not hold a legally valid plebiscite without the consent of Madrid.

Madrid, seeking cancellation of the referendum or breakdown, insisting on its illegality.

Also according to the President of the European Parliament Antonio Tajani. “The referendum in Spain contrary to the Constitution, respectively, it is contrary to European laws,” he said. “But it is at the legal level. And at the political level, the best solution will be political dialogue between the Spanish government and the government of Catalonia”, – said the head of the European Parliament.

According to him, this dialogue is necessary first of all to Spain, reports TASS. “We have to do it, but it is an internal problem of Spain, not Europe,” he added.

However, to monitor the referendum, the EU institutions will carefully. As said in Brussels the European Commission representative Alexander Vintershtayn, answering a question of journalists that the EC is going to do with the “illegal referendum on 1 October,” “I don’t think we can do, we, like others, will see and follow.”

The government of Catalonia are trying to make a coup, conducting October 1, the so-called referendum on independence, but on October 2 Catalonia would remain an Autonomous community, according to the representative of public organization “Catalan civil society”, Professor of Economics at the Autonomous University of Barcelona Ferran Brunet.

The Parliament of Catalonia, where the vast majority are deputies from parties “Together for Yes” and “the Candidacy of national unity”, supporting the independence of the Autonomous community of Spain, 6 September adopted the law on referendum. The opposition parties consider the vote illegal, this document was disputed by the Spanish government in the Constitutional court, which accepted the claims for consideration. This means that further steps Catalan authorities to hold a referendum, illegal.

“What is happening from 6 September in Catalonia, a coup d’état. It is a challenge to international law. They are destroying the country. We are categorically against what is happening, and will not allow it. The second of October Catalonia would remain an Autonomous community of Spain,” the Brunet said at a meeting with foreign journalists. What is happening in the Autonomous community he called a “surreal situation”, reports RIA “Novosti”.

According to him, the plan of supporters of independence, promising to announce the release of Spain in the case that at the time of voting on 1 October, the majority will support the creation of a new independent state, no one seriously believes. “If someone seriously thought that Catalonia will declare independence, then the money would have brought all of the Autonomous communities. But this is not happening,” he said.

According to the economist, in case of the Declaration of independence, the turnover of Catalonia will fall – in the best scenario to 20%, with the worst – 60%, while unemployment will rise. Besides, according to him, will have to introduce a new currency – the exit from Spain automatically means an exit from the Eurozone.

Head of the Center for Iberian studies of the Institute of Europe RAS
Vladimir Vernikov sure that the results of the referendum on the independence of Catalonia will have no legal force, but will pose serious challenges to attracting investment in this Spanish region.

“The referendum itself will not take place. Missing a number of elements which would speak in favor of the recognition results. There is no limit, no lists, no fees, which would have calculated the result. Therefore, the procedure of referendum is baseless, make some noise and be quiet,” said Vernikov.

According to him, no legal force, the results of the vote, even if it takes place, will not have. However Vernikov believes that even attempting to hold a referendum, fueled the troubled situation in Catalonia, gives a very negative effect on the investment attractiveness of this Spanish region. “Investors, where the noise and where the restless, will not come,” – said the expert.

While Vernikov challenged the widespread stereotype that Catalonia is “a donor of the whole of Spain”, reports “Interfax”. “This performance is completely depoliticized. 80% of products manufactured by Catalonia, is implemented on the territory of Spain. Here is the market. Not this market, there’s and Catalonia”, – said the expert.

Associate Professor of European law at MGIMO Nikolai Topornin also believes that a referendum on Catalan independence will have serious legal consequences and will not lead to the separation of the region from Spain.

“It will have no profound legal implications, no constitutional effects, and then Catalonia will become independent,” he said. However, the expert acknowledged that a referendum could complicate the dialogue between Barcelona and Madrid, if the majority vote for secession from Spain. However, he believes that the power scenario in Catalonia will not. “Nobody with any kind of military action is not resorted and resort will not be”, – said Topornin.

In turn, head of the sector of international organizations and the global political regulation of the Institute of world economy and international relations of RAS, Professor, faculty of world politics of Moscow state University Irina Prokhorenko noted that the inconsistency of the referendum of the Spanish Constitution is only part of the problem. According to her, the planned vote would not be consistent with other laws relating to Catalonia.

“This disparity between the main after the Constitution of the normative act who now lives in Catalonia, is the Statute. And if we look at the voting on the referendum, even where it violated the provisions of the Statute, when a vote carried by a simple majority, not two thirds, and dragged the position that there is no turnout. And many, many other reasons,” she said.

The representative of the Association for election observation of Catalonia Felipe Moreno said that the supporters of independence there is no absolute support in the community. “In the last election, a smaller proportion of the electorate voted for parties that support secession from Spain,” he recalled. However, because of the peculiarities of the electoral system in Spain, they managed to get the majority of seats in the Catalan Parliament. Support the idea of independence is much stronger in villages than in large cities: 55% vs 33%. “Territorial gap is huge,” he said.

Professor of constitutional law at the Autonomous University of Barcelona Francesc Carreras considers that in the last 40 years, neither in Spain nor in Catalonia was not a real desire to lead a normal dialogue and in the Autonomous community before the advent of the party “Citizens” – there was not a single political force, with the exception of “foreign people’s party”, which would protect the interests of Spanish-speaking residents of Catalonia.

The representative of the party “Union, progress and democracy” Carlos Silva believes that the solution to the Catalan problem will take a lot more years. “Many Catalans for a long time felt abandoned by the state. The government must finally take responsibility, understand the importance of this issue”, – he stressed.

The UN special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of the right to freedom of opinion and expression David Kaye and UN independent expert on the question of the promotion of a democratic and equitable international order , Alfred Maurice de Zayas, appealed to the authorities of Spain with a statement in which he warned the leadership of the Republic from taking against supporters of the referendum such measures that may be considered by the international community as a violation of fundamental rights of the people.

As reported TASS, the statement said that “measures that we see are worrying, because they seem to violate basic individual rights, closing public information and discussion at a critical time for Spanish democracy”. “Regardless of the legality of the referendum on the Spanish authorities are responsible for enforcing those rights that are essential to democratic societies”, – experts underline.

However, the situation when Madrid go on a military solution of the conflict situation, it is unlikely. “You can’t say about power solution
getting rid of the referendum. No such decision”, – said the head of the Center for Iberian studies of the Institute of Europe RAS Vladimir Vernikov. He noted that according to Spanish law, the armed forces and the national guard and other security forces “took precedence over regional”.

Vernikov considers that the municipal police of Catalonia will maintain loyalty to the Central authorities and any incidents with the police contingent seconded by Madrid, not expected. “They don’t speak either “for” or “against”, but by law they are obliged to obey the decisions of the authorities from Madrid over the heads of the government of Catalonia. I do not predict changes in the behavior of the Catalan police,” he said.

The government of Catalonia is going to hold the 1st of October, the referendum on independence, which does not recognize the Spanish government. Spain’s constitutional court suspended all documents regarding the vote taken by Generalitat and the Catalan Parliament. Thus, the court declared all further actions of the Catalan authorities on the preparation of the referendum illegal.

In turn, the government of Catalonia claim that the upcoming Sunday referendum is a legal procedure and offers the chance for democracy in Spain and throughout Europe. The head of the Department for foreign Affairs of the government of Catalonia Raul Romeva believes that the authority currently have a situation, when the clash between the “two projects – one against the other.” “The first is democracy, which means reaching out to people. This means – let us ask and we will do so, as they say, is democracy. On the other hand – the denial of reality and aggressive response to the aspirations of the people,” he said.

“Polls show that 80% of the population of Catalonia wants this vote. It’s not a question of independence, it’s about democracy,” said Romeva, stressing that the upcoming plebiscite “is not illegal”.

“We tried for years to start negotiations with the Spanish government about how to proceed. And we will not abandon this, we are convinced that democracy is inextricably linked with the negotiations,” he said, adding that any negotiations now “would have to be based on what people say” in the referendum.

Politicians and experts: the result of illegal voting on the independence of Catalonia and its separation from Spain has no legal force 29.09.2017

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