“Rosneft” has warned about the emergence of a number of market risks, which the Russian authorities it is obligatory to take into account, fulfilling the current agreement with OPEC to reduce oil production. Risk number one “Rosneft” refers to the continuing growth of shale production in North America, writes RBC.
First Vice-President “Rosneft” Pavel Fedorov appealed to the energy Ministry with a letter in which he asked to closely monitor the production volumes of shale oil in the United States, as well as the readiness of Saudi Arabia to keep prices low on oil. These risks, according to Russia’s largest oil company, will have to consider “the adoption of new and implementation of existing agreements with the OPEC countries”.
“Rosneft” also has informed the Ministry that after significant production cuts in January and February it in some months, possible “slight deviations from a smooth trend of decreasing” in connection with the launch of new facilities.
The representative of Rosneft declined to comment. Similarly, received in the Ministry of energy.
The Ministry of energy has no leverage to prevent these risks, experts that talked to the publication. The main threat to the extension of the agreement to reduce oil production is a rapid adaptation of the producers of shale oil in the US to raise oil prices, said earlier the representative of the company.
The second risk of “Rosneft” considers the lack of assurances that Saudi Arabia will continue to cut production at the same pace as it has done in January – February 2017.
In March, Saudi Arabia said it plans to increase oil production to compensate for about one third of previously achieved lower production.
“It is not excluded that she might be interested only in the temporary stabilization of oil prices for the purpose of successful placement on the stock market Saudi Aramco (and achieve the target rating of 2 trillion dollars)”, – warns in his letter to the first Vice-President of “Rosneft”.
In November 2016 between the OPEC countries signed an agreement on reducing oil production in the first half of 2017 at 1.2 million barrels per day relative to the level of October 2016, to 32.5 million barrels. 10 Dec 2016 11 countries outside OPEC, including Russia, pledged to January 2017 in total to reduce the volume of oil production by 558 thousand barrels per day.
Russia’s share in this volume is 300 thousand barrels: that production cuts must be achieved by may 2017. Russian oil companies have voluntarily committed themselves to reduce production in proportion to their share of energy carries out monitoring of their obligations.
In the result, the average price of Brent crude in 2016 amounted to 44.6 per barrel, and April 7, 2017 the oil of this brand cost of 55.25 per barrel.
We will remind, last week Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich during the final Collegium of the Ministry of energy admittedthat oil prices after the reduction in OPEC production, as well as countries outside the cartel, far below the level which was expected by Russia.
“Just, of course, wanted to go to the price of 55-60 USD per barrel, but the combination of factors does not give such possibility. But still the action was correct, the situation is better than it was. In any case, I think we absolutely did the right thing by reaching this agreement,” – said Dvorkovich, adding that the decision to extend the agreement with OPEC will be taken on the results of monitoring in April – may of 2017.