Falling incomes of the population of Russia is over in the current year, and in 2017, the government hopes for their growth and reviving consumer demand. These optimistic statements were made by the first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov in Singapore at the business forum “Russia-Singapore”.
“Incomes are not growing as we would like, – quotes its RIA “Novosti”. But we note that for some groups of the population real incomes still little, but growing. The income decline is over.”
“I hope that next year all the same it will be the trend for all groups of the population, income will grow. And consumer demand should next year come to life, now consumers are behaving carefully enough”, – said Shuvalov.
Meanwhile, according to the published in early October, according to monitoring of economic development in the first three quarters of this year, real disposable incomes have decreased over the year by 8.3%, and it has become the maximum decline in this index since 2009. During the same period, incomes fell in nominal terms by 0.9% in annual terms, said the MAYOR.
Revenues from the commodity sector to save up and not spend
Shuvalov also said that the proceeds from the commodity sector, which will state in taxes, you need to spend on budget spending and replenish reserve funds, so the money “to preserve for future generations.”
“We have reserve funds, those funds we need for this money to replenish. And learn to live and spend what is given to other development, other sectors, including services. Some new types of industry in the economy appear,” he added.
Currently, the dependence of the Russian budget revenue from oil and gas sector large, despite the fact that revenues from the commodity sector decline amid falling oil prices. However, in the years 2017-2019, the Ministry of Finance plans to prepare the country for the introduction of a new “budget rule”, which he will need to reduce the size of the non-oil deficit over three years by three percentage points to 6.5% of GDP.
Very “budget rule” proposed by the Ministry of Finance to launch in 2020 looks like this: if oil and gas revenues of the budget will be higher than that predicted in the average annual price of oil at $ 40 a barrel, “surplus” will be “sterilized” in the Reserve Fund and national welfare Fund. Such a withdrawal of additional income to reserves, in addition to creating a “safety cushion”, at the same time will help prevent excessive strengthening of the ruble, said earlier the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov.
It is expected that in 2017, the Reserve Fund will be fully exhausted, because the Fund in the amount of 1.15 trillion rubles will be used to cover the Federal budget deficit. From the Fund to Finance the budget deficit is planned to spend in 2017 668,2 billion rubles, in 2018 – 1.16 trillion in 2019 is 139.7 billion.
The worst is over, said Shuvalov
The most difficult period for the Russian economy, “since the last quarter of 2014″, is already behind, said Shuvalov. The decline of the country’s GDP by the end of 2016 can make 0,6-0,7%, however, the Russian economy is working and in 2017 will be GDP growth of 1%, continued the first Deputy Prime Minister.
“We are seeing slow, but growing. Month-to-month, the Russian economy is growing, and I hope that next year this growth will be 1% or more that the Russian economy is not enough, but at least positive growth, not lack of it”, – said Shuvalov.
Rosstat publishes GDP data on a quarterly basis, the previously estimated decline of the economy in January-September 2016 at 0.7%. According to the estimates of the Ministry, in January-October, the decline in GDP amounted to 0.7% and a decline in the economy for the year, the Ministry forecasts at 0.6%.