Strategic Outlook to 2035 developed by the Ministry of economic development, did not like the military
The Ministry of economic development with difficulty and loss agreed on a Strategic forecast of the Russian Federation until 2035, the newspaper “Kommersant”.
Development economists did not suit the defence Ministry and the General staff – the military should create a secret document about the economic possibilities of overcoming is described in detail threats to the security of the Russian Federation.
The draft Strategic forecast of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2035 is included in the list of strategic planning documents in the field of national security, which was approved on 30 December 2015.
The text signed by the Deputy Minister of economic development Alexei Wedeven contains a good faith attempt to combine “military-strategic” considerations, and the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation from the point of view of civil economists.
So, the draft forecast for de facto puts sustainability in the field of national security dependent on the level of economic development of the Russian Federation and in particular from investment opportunities in the country, ensuring the availability of technological solutions – including those for defense purposes.
Judging by the correspondence Minekonomrazvitija the government on the project, this approach the Ministry of defence did not find understanding. Table of differences, signed by the head of the General staff Valery Gerasimov, makes it clear that under Strategic forecast of the Russian Federation imply military.
They would like to see him as a risk-assessment of socio-economic development and threats to national security with a phased estimates of the likely state of the economy and optimal scenarios “in the form of a plan or order” to overcome such risks and threats.
According to the table, the staff even gave information on detail these kinds of threats – but the papers on the possibilities and probabilities of riots, wars and terrorist attacks were in Minekonomrazvitija classified as “top secret”. The Ministry insists on a maximum document “for official use”.
The most interesting in the project of the Ministry of economy, according to the newspaper, is a long-term “phased forecast of probable state of socio-economic potential of the Russian Federation” for the 2016-2035 years Mineconomrazvitiye ahead of the Finance Ministry, which will soon have to submit to the government budget forecast up to 2034.
Strategic forecast also declared the priority development of human capital – including culture and tourism, as well as the pension system and that logical, structural constraints to economic growth, in understanding the risks Minekonomrazvitija way or another are reflected in a situation with DHS.
In this scenario Russia, according to the Agency, will be the “world power of the XXI century”. The share of imports in udovletvorennost domestic demand will fall by 8%, productivity doubled, the momentum of small business will grow 2.5 times and the share of processing in GDP will be 20%. Finally, it will achieve a high level of trust of civil society to the government, which will be an effective and high-tech.
Rusty will be the first large urban agglomerations, the population will grow until 2021-2025 years, when it reaches and 148.3 million people, but by 2035 it will be reduced to 146,9 million