The Central Bank expressed concern about the shortage of personnel in the areas of health, education, science, technology & IT, and skilled workers. The shortage of manpower in Russia, associated with low wages, has negative effects on economic growth and inflation, say there.
The analysts of the Central Bank warned that labour shortages can have two negative effects of inflation and indicators of economic activity, the newspaper “Izvestia”.
The direct effect is outstripping growth in wages relative to productivity, and the indirect effect is to reduce the potential growth of production due to the lack of the ability to attract the right personnel.
In its latest press release on the key rate of the Central Bank noted that economic growth is approaching its potential level will continue to be limited because of the labor shortage.
According to Rosstat, labour productivity in Russia since 2009, growing approximately two times slower than the real wages of the population. The only exception was the year 2015, when real wages declined by 9.1% and labour productivity by 2.2%. In July, the resumed fall in the real disposable incomes of the population, and citizens are poorer another 0.8%.
In this last July was the de facto 33rd consecutive month of falling living standards in Russia. Per capita income, according to Rosstat, amounted in July 31634 ruble. Nominal growth – 896 rubles – completely “burned” in inflation, despite her slowdown to a record low since the beginning of 1990s values (3,9%).
Analyst Raiffeisenbank Stanislav Murashov said the publication that the inflation rate could add 0.5 percentage points due to the fact that wages are rising much faster than productivity.
The Deputy Director of the Center for development HSE Valery Mironov says that because of labor shortages, the economy loses in the growth of about one percentage point.
The more growing number of manufactured goods, the more GDP grows, the expert said. “In this regard, too low growth of labor productivity against a too high wage growth significantly hit the economy,” he said.
The Ministry expects economic growth in 2017 at around 2%, predicting an inflation rate of 3.8%.