Official data of Rosstat on the number of emigrants from the country of Russians underestimated three to four times. More adequate to the real situation data of foreign statistical services, registered immigrants, according to the report “Emigration from Russia in the late XX – early XXI century”, presented Thursday, October 6, economists of the Committee of civil initiatives Alexei Kudrin and published on the website of the organization. From their data it follows that from 1989 to 2015 Russia left the 13-18 million people.
From 1989 to 2015, according to Rosstat, the Russian left about 4.5 million people. According to foreign statistics for the year 2015, migration in the most popular among Russians countries are home to about half a million citizens of Russia without taking into account already received the new citizenship, illegal migrants and those who actually live “in two countries”, having the Russian citizenship, entering on visas.
In the report prepared by doctor of economic Sciences Olga Vorobyeva candidate of economic Sciences Oleksandr Grebenyuk, an attempt is made to describe the actual the flow of emigration from Russia, to assess its current magnitude, trends and implications.
As highlighted in the report, data from the national statistical services of foreign countries on the annual entry of Russians many times higher than Rosstat’s figures on emigration from Russia. “These data cast doubt on the value of the migration increase and, as a consequence, figures of the total increase of the population of the Russian Federation” – written by experts, and suggest to multiply the numbers of Rosstat two or three times to get an idea about the real scale of emigration.
Thus, according to the German statistical office for the period 2011-2014 years in Germany, immigrated a little less than 97 thousand people, and according to Rosstata – 16.3 thousand people. Russian data on emigration from Russia to Israel in 2014 following four times in the U.S. – 4.7%, in the Czech Republic – nearly 20 times and to Germany five times.
The difference in statistics is because the data of Rosstat in the end go back to the statistics of the Federal migration service, which considers as immigrants only those who have discharged from their apartments and does not take into account those with no records were removed, as well as those who left to study or work under the contract and did not return. The number of departures from Russia of those who have ended the term of registration by place of residence. In turn, foreign statistics did not distinguish immigrants from “expats” and those who are in the country illegally, has multiple citizenships or residence permits. According to the report, foreign information more accurately represents the scale of emigration.
The most attractive emigration countries – Israel, Germany and the USA
Among the most popular to move foreign countries in the report are Israel, Germany and the USA. Since the beginning of the 1990s to the present time, according to Russian statistics, Israel left more than 150 thousand people, Germany – about 750 thousand in the United States – about 110 thousand. A relatively small but steady flow of immigrants observed in Australia, the UK, Spain, Italy, Canada, Finland and France. These countries receive annually from 300 to 700 immigrants.
Migrants high share of persons having higher professional education, including doctors and candidates of Sciences. Over the period from 2002 to 2011, left the country more than 93 thousand people with higher education, about 640 candidates of Sciences, more than 250 doctors of Sciences. The most popular countries among highly skilled immigrants were the United States, Canada, Germany and Israel.
Of the Russians who have emigrated to Australia, higher and incomplete higher education were 60%, Canada 59%, in USA – 48%, in Israel – 32,5%, in Germany 31%. The proportion with higher education among immigrants in Russia – 14%.
According to the characteristics of the speakers, “the flow of emigration is high quality human capital”: leave the young people with a high professional level.
Leave not only from Moscow but from all regions of Russia
Analyzing the geography of the pre-emptive departure, the authors of the report note that “the emigration gradually involved all the regions of Russia”. “If in 1992, dramatically dominated by Moscow and St. Petersburg, which gave about 40% of immigrants, while in 1997 their share had fallen to 18% in 1998 to 12.2% in 1999 to 10.6%. The reduced share of Moscow and St. Petersburg and in the stream sent to the USA”, – stated in the report.
In General, over the 15 years the number of emigrants (except those who left to the CIS countries) Moscow ahead of Omsk oblast. The Moscow region ahead of the Altai Krai and Tyumen oblast. Krasnodar Krai, Sverdlovsk, Novosibirsk and Chelyabinsk region number of emigrants 15 years ahead of Saint Petersburg and Leningrad oblast was the last of the 20 regions on this indicator.
Called the most important causes of emigration: Economics and politics
The report highlighted several most important motives that encourage them to leave Russia. To “push” for socio-economic reasons are: unstable economic and business environment, currency volatility, the risk of external and internal “shocks” to the economy; the penetration of all spheres of economic activities of criminal approaches to the regulation of relations of market participants; the lack of real competition, high level of corruption in the institutions of business, financial and investment activities.
Also among them are referred to as increasing risks for personal and business security associated with one of the world’s highest levels of corruption in the bureaucracy and law enforcement, and the unfavorable conditions for small and medium businesses.
Among the other common causes – low wages and the need for additional revenues, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev recommended that teachers who do not have enough money.
Among the socio-economic factors include low government spending on science, declining expenditure on education and healthcare causing degradation of these critical areas of economic and social life, reforming them, leading to decreased quality and quantity of free social services and, consequently, to lower quality of life, limit the ability of creative research and development.
In addition, push people out of the country, the lack of or weak opportunities for promotion up the social ladder without the presence of supportive family or friendship relations structures to ensure the upward movement of social mobility, and the applied “top-down” signals about the lack of domestic opportunities for growth in the wealth employed in the social sector and segments of the real economy.
Socio-political “push” reasons are: sympathy for opposition views; the danger of open participation in protest actions in connection with the threat of persecution because of their socio-political position; the weakness and uselessness of the civil society institutions; the distrust of the institutions of law enforcement and judicial systems.
Attracting external factors: the demand for highly skilled workers, entrepreneurs, professionals, researchers, receives there more real opportunities to improve the quality of life; favorable business climate and transparent business environment, guarantee the inviolability of private property; extension of host range for learning States; developed social infrastructure, availability of social services.
The growth of emigration moods among representatives of the Russian middle class was noted after March 2014, when was the accession of Crimea to Russia. Experts notedthat the easiest way to relocate programmers and those whose work is not directly related to the local culture or some special legal restrictions.
Although in June 2015, the head of the Federal migration service (FMS) of Russia Konstantin Romodanovsky said that he does not observe in Russia trends “time to go”, according to the survey “Levada-center”, published in July 2016, to emigrate from Russia wants almost every fifth Russian (19%), and thought about it 25% of citizens.