The ruble continues to weaken on the Moscow stock exchange the second day in a row. In less than a day the dollar has risen by almost three rubles.
As of mid-day on Friday Moscow time transactions with the American currency calculations “tomorrow” was held for 66 rubles exactly (of 63.27 against the ruble at the same time Thursday). This mark has been achieved for the first time since August 4. In the afternoon, the quotes were adjusted to the level of 65,85 rubles per dollar.
Euro rose in price by 2.2 rubles per day – from 69.6 per ruble at the opening of trading Thursday to 71,8625 of the ruble by noon Friday, reports “Interfax”.
On Thursday, we recall, oil prices fell more than 1% Friday, the decline continued on expectations that the oversupply of raw materials on the market next year.
Production in the U.S. is growing, and the promise of the elected American President Donald trump steps can lead to a further drop in oil prices.
The January futures for Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange by 15:10 Moscow time has fallen in price on 0,64 dollars (1,4%) – to 45.2 per barrel.
Futures for WTI crude oil for December in electronic trading on the new York Mercantile exchange (NYMEX) by specified time has decreased on 0,69 dollar (1,55%) – to 43,97 per barrel.
Oil market participants are trying to assess the impact of the election of Donald trump. According to 15 of the 38 surveyed by Bloomberg experts, the WTI will drop next week, while 14 analysts expect growth of quotations.
Now investors are waiting for the OPEC meeting, which will take place on 30 November to discuss an agreement on limiting production. If the cartel will go to significant measures of quotations may reach the bottom at the level of 40-50 dollars per barrel.
In addition to oil, the ruble began pushing the reset by the bond investors in developing countries, including Russia, against buying American bonds in the calculation of the growth of their yield.
Western funds to sell bonds of Federal loan of the Russian Federation (as evidenced by falling prices) and buying foreign currency to bring profit to their jurisdiction, explained Finanz.ru the main analyst of Bank “GLOBEKS” Victor Veselov.
The rise of the dollar due to the fact that the market has unexpectedly left the exporters, said the Agency Reuters currency dealer at one of Moscow banks. “They closed “shop”, which was a good volume, as buyers of the currency was and is, still, not all pleased with the Tramp, but foreign exchange demand to balance the exporters, but now – no,” – said the expert.
The chances of weakening of the ruble to the end of the year once again increased, analysts say, interviewed by the agencies TASS, Interfax, and RBC. The reasons are mainly the same as a year or two years ago. First, for the fourth quarter of peak of payments on external debts of Russian companies. Will have to repay almost $ 32 billion: 8.5 billion in November and $ 17 billion in December.
Second, at the end of the year comes the traditional peak period for ruble-denominated payments from the budget, companies are trying to pay the salaries and bonuses. Part of the money, again, by tradition, will be converted into currency.
Finally, the Russian currency is falling for the execution of the budget. When the ruble declines, due to the devaluation, you can close budget gaps. The current value of the ruble budget is very disadvantageous, experts have called the best authorities, the bar – above 70 rubles.