The forecast of Ministry of economic development promises Russia 20 years of “overcoming stagnation” and drift towards poor countries
Of economic development prepared a long-term forecast that in the next 20 years the Russian economy will stagnate and gradually approach the poor countries, writes the newspaper “Vedomosti”</u>.
Coming out of the recession in 2017, the economy in the next 20 years will grow very slowly at an average rate of 2% per year (from 1.7 to a maximum of 2.6%). It is approximately 1.5 times lower than average rates: thus Russia will move closer to poor countries, the newspaper said.
To increase GDP in 20 years will only be 1.5 times. Real incomes will grow on average by 1.4% per year and will reach the 2013 level only in 2021, 2035, exceeding it by less than 30%. At the same rate they grew during 2006-2007.
In the same 2021 will be able to overcome the effects of the three-year investment downturn: investments will reach pre-crisis 2013, but the pace of growth will remain moderate, averaging 3.3 percent annually. Exports will grow about 2% a year, imports – by almost 4%, the trade balance and the current account will gradually shrink, but will decrease almost to zero and the outflow of capital.
This variant of the forecast, the “basic plus” – is based on conservation of current trends and inertial development, but it is still not the worst. All three options, but it all comes from the fact that no more expensive oil or higher employment to overcome the stagnation of the economy will not help.
In the base case the average annual rate of GDP only slightly lower to 1.8% as labor productivity (2% on average per year against 2.1% in the “baseline plus”). This is a forecast of stagnation till 2030 with a rate of about 1.5% per year – made up the Ministry of Finance, adding that it is an option without serious structural reforms and it is not basic.
The option with the reforms presented in the third, the target scenario of the forecast of Ministry of economic development. In this more rapid growth in domestic investment accompanied by higher (unlike the other two options) productivity, faster income growth.
Economic growth accelerated to over 4% in 2019 and remain above the world average: an average of 3.6% per year for 2016-2035 years.
Ahead of the global economy should be achieved at the expense of the economy’s transition to the investment model of growth, said the representative of the Ministry of economic development. This revenue growth companies by reducing their costs, improving the business climate, support non-oil exports.
Economic growth of 3.5% per year is the maximum growth rate in the long term, explained Andrey Klepach, Deputy Chairman of VEB, in the recent past – the Deputy Minister of economic development, responsible for the macroeconomic forecast.
Long-term forecast of socio-economic development up to 2035, the Ministry prepared and sent to the Ministry of Finance in accordance with the requirement of the law on strategic planning. Based on the macroeconomic forecast of the Finance Ministry need to do long-term fiscal forecast to define the priorities of budget expenditures and to plan the funding of state programs.
The domestic economy is gradually emerging from stagnation is objective data, said on Tuesday President Vladimir Putin at a meeting on economic issues. Based on the forecast of economic development to 2035 the economy will overcome stagnation all the next 20 years, but will not succeed, say “Vedomosti”.