Experts from the International monetary Fund has predicted the beginning of a slow recovery of the Russian economy in 2017. To this conclusion employees of the IMF came at the end of his visit to Moscow, which took place November 14-18. During the visit, the parties discussed the economic prospects of the Russian Federation and related policy measures.
A report on the results of the November visit has published a press-service of the IMF. The report by the head of mission Ernesto Ramirez Rigo said that the Russian economy “suffered a double shock from falling oil prices and sanctions”, and now there are signs of a nascent reversal.
While by the end of 2016, the IMF experts expect an economic slowdown in Russia by 0.6% in the next year predict a growth of 1.1%. Partly this rise is associated with an increase in oil prices.
Besides the expected reduction in inflation to 5.6% by the end of 2016. In the next year there will be a drop of inflation down to the target of the Bank of Russia 4%, according to IMF experts.
In July, the Fund estimated the drop in Russia’s GDP this year to 1.2% in April -1,8%, according to “Vedomosti”. It was also estimated that the slowdown in inflation to 6.6% by the end of 2016.
The IMF report notes that the Russian authorities had taken “necessary and ambitious medium-term program of recovery budget” to adapt to the continuous reduction in oil prices. However, to achieve this goal requires a “more focused and more permanent structural reforms” of the pension system, system of tax benefits and subsidies and greater investment protection.
The head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina in an interview with Forbes said that in the next year, according to Bank of Russia estimates, there will be economic recovery, “albeit small – in the range of 1%”. According to her, now the Russian economy is “adapt to external shocks, and she needs to start growing on a new basis, not just for oil”. “To grow, we need structural reform and transformation, i.e. the removal of barriers to investment, and one of the elements is low inflation. And the Central Bank’s role is to provide consistently low inflation”, – said the head of the Central Bank.
IMF chief Christine Lagarde at the APEC summit in Peru in mid-November, praised the actions of the Russian government and the Bank of Russia on maintenance of macroeconomic stability. According to her, the leadership of the Central Bank “has done a fantastic job”.