The Ministry of economic development because of claims of the Ministry of Finance will correct the three-year forecast for the ruble exchange rate and inflation
The Ministry of economic development of the Russian Federation agreed to make changes to the macroeconomic forecast of the budget because of disagreements with the Ministry of Finance about inflation and the ruble, the newspaper “Vedomosti”.
Refinements will consider the budget Committee at the meeting scheduled for 5 October.
According to the current forecast of Ministry of economic development rate of the ruble to the dollar will amount to 65.5 rubles in 2017, 64 rubles in 2018 and 64.5 in 2019. In the draft budget of the Ministry of Finance, the ruble is 67,5, 68.7 and a 71.1 ruble per dollar, respectively.
According to the Finance Ministry, the strengthening of the dollar by 1 ruble would bring the budget of 60 billion in terms of 2017 with oil price at 40 USD per barrel and the dollar at 69.4 rubles.
The Ministry also promises to lower the inflation forecast. On the current draft of the Agency in 2017, prices will rise by 4.9%, in 2018 – by 4.4%, in 2019 – by 4.1%. This prediction is not consistent with the plans of the Central Bank to keep inflation at 4% in 2017. The Ministry of Finance laid down in the draft three-year budget inflation at 4%.
According to one of interlocutors of the newspaper, the Ministry with the claims of the Ministry of Finance do not agree, but the forecasts are still undone, because the correction of the macroeconomic forecast of inflation demanded of the Central Bank. Another source explained that most of the disagreement is due to the forecast for 2019.
The Ministry of economic development said the forecast for 2016-2019 in mid-September, worsening of most indicators. Even then, “Vedomosti” became aware of the objection from the Central Bank and Ministry of Finance.
In the opinion of the Ministry of Finance, in particular, that the differences in the forecasts reduce the credibility of government policy and the Central Bank and hamper the fight against inflation expectations.