The Ministry of economic development told about the reasons of deterioration of the GDP forecast 2017-19 years
The Ministry explained the reasons for the change of macroeconomic forecast for GDP growth Russia in 2017-2019 downward, reports “Interfax”. “This is due to budget consolidation. We are laying lower inflation, which implies a more rigid monetary policy,” – said the representative office.
Prepared in the Ministry of the calculations of the main macroeconomic indicators for 2017-2019 and adjustment of 2016 was sent to the government on Tuesday. They will be discussed at the next Cabinet meeting on 13 October.
In particular, the Agency headed by Alexey Ulyukaev, updated figures of the forecast of social-economic development of the Russian Federation in 2017-2019.
In the calculation of adjusted GDP, implying an increase of 0.2% in 2017, 0.9% in 2018 and 1.2% in 2019.
In the previous version, the Ministry had laid the growth of Russia’s GDP by 0.6% and 1.7% and 2.1% with inflation at 4.9%, 4.4% and 4.1%. But then, after a meeting of the budget Committee, the inflation forecast has been adjusted to 4% in years 2017-2019.
The new forecast now reflects the suggestions of the Ministry of Finance at the exchange rate at 67.5, 68.7 and 71.1 per ruble per dollar, respectively, and not the original proposals of the Ministry of economic development. The basic scenario of economic development, calculated at $ 40 per barrel, submitted for approval in September, the government assumed average annual rate of 65.5 rubles per $ 1 in 2017, 65 in 2018 and 64.4 in 2019.
According to the newspaper “Vedomosti”, the Ministry with the claims of the Ministry of Finance did not agree, but the forecast still decided to redo, as the correction demanded of the Central Bank.
Real disposable income of the population, according to the forecast, should rise in 2017, 0.2%, in 2018 – 0.3%, in 2019 – 0.6%. Retail turnover will grow by 0.6%, 0.9% and 1.6%, respectively.