From the latest version of the macroeconomic forecast of economic development of the RF economy is gradually emerging on the growth trajectory. In fact, however, growth accelerated decision-making on behalf of the government, the newspaper “Vedomosti”, by analyzing a basic scenario of the updated forecast of socio-economic development.
The Ministry of economic development repeatedly changes the macro forecast to reduce the budget at least on paper, say the interviewed experts. It shows what a dead end the government itself has driven.
Third for October, the economy Ministry forecast is that in 2017 – GDP growth 0.6%, in 2018 – by 1.7% and in 2019 – by 2.1%. The previous forecast was for 0.2%, 0.9% and of 1.2%.
This time, the newspaper changed only the dynamics of the economy in real terms and retail. The improvement in the dynamics of GDP in the Ministry of economic development the paper explained the change of the index stocks.
Earlier, the Ministry of economic development has played a third-party forecast of the requirements of the Central Bank and Ministry of Finance. The forecast for inflation is now 4% for the three-year period, the dollar – 67,5, 68.7 and 71.1 per ruble in 2017-2019.
The base variant in its current form is not a forecast of economic development, and set the audit options for the budget, said the publication of the experts involved in the discussions. At least because “the price of oil $ 40 per barrel for all three years – something new in forecasting”. When the oil price growth of 0.6% is impossible, he explains.
The model of economic development known as “the numbers must be such, as it is written,” explains another source of their numbers of Federal officials.
Traditionally, the Finance Ministry insisted on a stronger ruble in the macroeconomic forecast, which meant a lower budget revenues, reduced costs and conservation reserves.
Now, however, the costs recorded in all three years, and the task of the Ministry of Finance – to meet deficit target: 3.2% of GDP in 2017, 2.2% in 2018 and 1.2% in 2019. You just have to approve the budget, to redo it, no one will, and “normally will do in 2017,” says the official financial-economic bloc.
The Ministry of Finance expect that the dynamics of investment in fixed capital will move into positive territory, averaging 1.8% per year, is told in the explanatory note to the draft budget.
The assumption that the target inflation of 4% can be achieved in 2017, means that the compression in lending activity and the restriction of demand will have a negative impact on investment, GDP and retail, said earlier the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev.
It will be worse with real incomes all three years of growth below 1%, but the Ministry expects that the population will abandon the savings behavior.